Thomas Hannah's recent articles
T-10 analysis: quality buzz over quantity of buzz
Since May of this year, WaveMetrix have been collecting and coding US Twitter buzz around all major movie releases on a continuous basis. Tweets are 100% analyst coded for topic, sentiment and intent to view, with all movies tracked for the ten weeks before release.
T-10 articles investigate trends in this data, with the aim of enabling movie marketers and commentators to better understand social media movie buzz.
High volumes of chatter can mean anything. Many movies drive tremendous amounts of discussion, but perform poorly. This underlines the importance of ensuring that consumers discussing your movie are not only saying positive things, but are saying they want to see it.
T-10 data is coded for intent wherever consumers explicitly say "I want to see this." To investigate the quality of buzz, we cut it by the % that expressed intent to view, and the % that expressed intent to avoid
Percentage of buzz expressing intent to view/avoid for key 2012 movies
- Most movies drive a fair amount of intent: usually 40 - 50% of comments contain some explicit expression of desire to see the movie
- Buzz around successful movies tends to show higher percentages of intent throughout the T-10 period
- Madagascar 3 has been 2012's best performer so far, driving close to 70% intent to view
- Consumers don't generally say they don't want to see something. If it doesn't interest them, they just won't talk about it, so explicit intent to avoid is always at low levels
- However, even at low levels, intent to avoid can be toxic: John Carter and Battleship both drove more than 3% intent to avoid; more than three times the average (0.7%)
NB - Overperformers are defined as those movies which grossed more than $50 million in their opening weekend. Underperformers defined as movies that recouped less than 25% of their budget over their opening weekend
This data is based on the reading and coding of more than 290,000 opinions from over 270,000 consumers, around the following movies: The Hunger Games, The Avengers, Dark Shadows, Battleship, What to Expect When Youre Expecting, Moonrise Kingdom, John Carter, Snow White & the Huntsman, Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted, Prometheus, Rock of Ages, Thats My Boy, Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter, Brave, Seeking a Friend for the End of the World, To Rome with Love, Madeas Witness Protection, Magic Mike, Ted, The Amazing Spider-Man, Katy Perry Part of Me 3D, Savages, Ice Age Continental Drift, Red Lights, 30 Beats, Grassroots, The Dark Knight Rises, Ruby Sparks, Killer Joe, Step Up Revolution, The Watch, Celeste and Jesse Forever, Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days, Soldiers of Fortune, Total Recall, 2 Days in New York, Hope Springs, The Bourne Legacy, The Campaign, The Odd Life of Timothy Green, Compliance, ParaNorman, Robot and Frank, Sparkle, The Expendables II, Hit and Run, Premium Rush, The Apparition, Lawless, For a Good Time Call, The Good Doctor, The Possession. All data is based on analysts reading and coding consumer opinions – no automated sentiment or intent to view classification has been used