T-10 analysis: the importance of consistency

T-10 analysis: the importance of consistency

Tags: T-10 | movies

Since May of this year, WaveMetrix have been collecting and coding US Twitter buzz around all major movie releases on a continuous basis. Tweets are 100% analyst coded for topic, sentiment and intent to view, with all movies tracked for the ten weeks before release.

T-10 articles investigate trends in this data, with the aim of enabling movie marketers and commentators to better understand social media movie buzz.

Ten weeks is a long time. Consumer opinions towards your movie can change a lot throughout the pre-release period. However, is this fluctuation important if they end up positive?

Analysis of T-10 buzz around 2012's new releases suggests it is. While there are a few exceptions, (The Amazing Spider-Man battled fairly lukewarm early buzz, but grew positive later) movies that generate positive sentiment and strong intent week-on-week tend to perform well, while those that fluctuate more tend to struggle upon release.

Overperforming 2012 movies: cumulative intent to view and sentiment over time

Overperforming 2012 movies: cumulative intent to view and sentiment over time

These movies go straight up: their intent to view increases healthily each week, while sentiment remains positive, and consistently so. This suggests the movie is keeping positivity strong from the early stages right through to release

Underperforming 2012 movies: cumulative intent to view and sentiment over time

These movies zig-zag: their intent to view is not increasing as rapidly, while their sentiment is fluctuating more drastically week-to-week. This suggests that content releases are getting a mixed reception, and that attitudes towards the movie are not stable, meaning there is not as great a capacity to build a groundswell of interest around the movie

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NB - Overperformers are defined as those movies within the top 10 opening weekend grosses of 2012 so far, that also outperformed their box office estimates upon release. Underperformers defined as movies that are not in the top 20 grossing movies of 2012 so far and recouped less than 25% of their budget over their opening weekend. For more specifics please contact T-10@wavemetrix.com

This data is based on the reading and coding of more than 290,000 opinions from over 270,000 consumers, around the following movies: The Hunger Games, The Avengers, Dark Shadows, Battleship, What to Expect When Youre Expecting, Moonrise Kingdom, John Carter, Snow White & the Huntsman, Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted, Prometheus, Rock of Ages, Thats My Boy, Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter, Brave, Seeking a Friend for the End of the World, To Rome with Love, Madeas Witness Protection, Magic Mike, Ted, The Amazing Spider-Man, Katy Perry Part of Me 3D, Savages, Ice Age Continental Drift, Red Lights, 30 Beats, Grassroots, The Dark Knight Rises, Ruby Sparks, Killer Joe, Step Up Revolution, The Watch, Celeste and Jesse Forever, Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days, Soldiers of Fortune, Total Recall, 2 Days in New York, Hope Springs, The Bourne Legacy, The Campaign, The Odd Life of Timothy Green, Compliance, ParaNorman, Robot and Frank, Sparkle, The Expendables II, Hit and Run, Premium Rush, The Apparition, Lawless, For a Good Time Call, The Good Doctor, The Possession. All data is based on analysts reading and coding consumer opinions – no automated sentiment or intent to view classification has been used

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